Mohammad Javad Zarif, a pivotal figure in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations, has resumed his influential role in Iranian politics as the Vice President for Strategic Affairs under President Pezeshkian's administration. This development followed shortly after Zarif's brief resignation, which was a protest against the initial cabinet composition. His return is strategic, particularly given his history of effective nuclear diplomacy and his collaborative relationship with Abbas Araqchi, Iran's newly appointed Foreign Minister.
Zarif and Araqchi are intimately familiar with the U.S. "Iran team" from the Obama era, positioning them well to navigate complex diplomatic channels. They are acutely aware of the limited window before the U.S. elections to advance Iran's nuclear agenda, especially considering the potential return of a hardline administration under Trump, which could replicate the confrontational policies seen during his previous term.
Although he remains wary of American intentions, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, has also signaled openness to re-engagement with the U.S. On a national broadcast, Khamenei emphasized the need for Iran to proceed independently of Western approval while acknowledging the possibility of tactical engagement with adversaries. This approach underlines a cautious but proactive stance towards renewing dialogues on Iran’s nuclear program, reflecting a broader strategy to strengthen Iran’s position on the international stage amidst ongoing regional conflicts and alignments.
Zarif's comeback
Mohammad Javad Zarif has announced his return to the post of vice president for strategic affairs in President Pezeshkian's cabinet.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, a key architect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, announced his return as Vice President for Strategic Affairs in President Pezeshkian's cabinet two weeks after his resignation. Zarif resigned ten days after Pezeshkian revealed his cabinet selections. His resignation followed disagreements over the cabinet's composition, particularly regarding including diverse and qualified candidates. After extensive consultations with Pezeshkian and receiving a direct order from the president, Zarif has resumed his duties, promoting a merit-based and inclusive government.
Zarif said in a post on X on 27 August that after "follow-ups and prudent consultations" with Pezeshkian and with the "written order" of the president, he would "continue his duties" at the government. He twitted:
"Today, the government members met with the Supreme Leader under circumstances where the highest presence of women, ethnic groups, and religious minorities in the cabinet reflected the honesty and courage of the honorable President in fulfilling his electoral promises. I hope this approach continues, fostering national unity through development that is both human-centered and driven by the people.
My colleagues and I in the Steering Council and committees take pride in the fact that nearly 70 percent of ministers, vice presidents, deputy ministers, and organization heads were chosen based on expert recommendations in this transparent and participatory process. God willing, this method will become institutionalized with the elimination of deficiencies.
Following the prudent efforts and consultations of the honorable president and his written directive, I will continue to serve in the strategic vice presidency with trust in God and the hope of receiving the support and guidance of the noble people.
I apologize for my late arrival at the meeting with the Supreme Leader".
Strategic Collaboration
Given Zarif's history as a chief negotiator of the JCPOA and his return to a strategic role in Pezeshkian's cabinet, it is plausible that he may seek to revive the nuclear deal or initiate new negotiations in alignment with Iran's broader diplomatic strategy.
However, this effort will face significant challenges, as the new Foreign Minister has explicitly stated that the current geopolitical climate differs from when the JCPOA was first negotiated. He emphasized that some deadlines within the agreement have lapsed, making a straightforward revival impossible. The Foreign Minister also suggested that the deal must be reopened and modified, which will likely be complex and challenging given the current political situation in Europe and the U.S. presidential election cycle.
Abbas Araqchi, recently appointed as Iran's Foreign Minister and previously a senior nuclear negotiator, is known for his English fluency and professional rapport with U.S. "Iran team" counterparts. With 247 out of 285 votes affirming his position on August 21, his extensive experience is poised to strengthen and advance Iran's nuclear diplomatic tactics. Araqchi's deep familiarity with the JCPOA makes him pivotal in Iran’s nuclear discussions.
His collaboration with Zarif, who may also return to a prominent role, further boosted Iran's diplomatic efforts. Araqchi and Zarif are well-acquainted with the American negotiating team and are strategizing to leverage the window before the U.S. elections in November. They aim to advance the nuclear issue before a potential presidency by Trump, who could reinstate a stricter stance against Iran as seen during his previous term. Additionally, the recent visit of Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister to Iran was partially aimed at advancing nuclear negotiations.
Supreme Leader’s Stance on Negotiations - a green light?
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has expressed a willingness to restart negotiations with the U.S. concerning Iran's nuclear program while simultaneously warning against overly trusting Washington. On August 27, 2024, during National Government Week, the Leader met with Pezeshkian and members of the 14th Administration in the Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah.
In a televised address, Khamenei indicated no objections to re-engaging with the U.S., stressing that Iran should not rely on American approval for its initiatives. "We do not have to pin our hope to the enemy. For our plans, we should not wait for approval by the enemies," Khamenei stated, suggesting that dialogues with adversaries can occur without contradictions. “This reality was also evident in the President's remarks and the Foreign Minister's statements a few days ago. Of course, this does not mean we cannot interact with the same enemy in certain situations. There is no harm in that, but do not place your hopes in them. Do not trust the enemy.”
Zarif, known for his diplomatic approach and ability to engage with Western powers, might push for renewed talks, leveraging his experience and connections. However, the success of such efforts would depend heavily on the international community's willingness to renegotiate the terms and the Iranian administration's ability to navigate the new geopolitical landscape effectively.
Iran’s Path to Nuclear Threshold Status
Iran's deep involvement in the Gaza conflict, directly and through its support of Hamas and other militant groups, demonstrates Tehran's broader regional ambitions as a leader of the so-called "Axis of Resistance." Iran perceives itself as an ascending regional and international power, increasingly confident in its military capabilities. This self-perception was demonstrated in April 2024 when Iran launched missile and drone strikes against Israel in retaliation for the killing of IRGC commanders in Damascus. Tehran's willingness to confront Israel directly underscores its growing assertiveness.
In addition to its confrontations with Israel, Iran's deepening military cooperation with Russia, particularly in the context of Iran's assistance to Russia in the war in Ukraine, including the provision of drones and other military equipment, has strengthened this partnership. This close alliance with Russia, coupled with its growing ties to China, has reduced Iran's dependence on Western approval or relief from sanctions. As a result, Iran feels encouraged to continue its regional subversive activities with less fear of Western retaliation, making it less likely to concede to stringent terms that might be proposed in a renegotiated nuclear deal.
Iran is now more confident in advancing its nuclear program and appears poised to declare itself as a threshold nuclear state by the end of the year. This newfound confidence stems from military assertiveness, strategic regional and international alliances, and a diminished reliance on the West. Iran's deepening ties with powers like Russia and its involvement in the BRICS economic bloc further embolden its stance, allowing it to pursue its nuclear ambitions more aggressively and independently.
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