Tehran executes a high-stakes "Chicken Maneuver," betting that aggressive maritime threats and strategic resolve will force Washington into a favorable, "deal-oriented" retreat. Despite claims of victory over January’s "fitna," renewed university protests and President Trump’s lingering promises continue to challenge the regime's grasp on internal stability

Circulating claim of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issuing or threatening a jihad fatwa in defense of Khamene- unsubstantiated

Iran’s leadership is framing Netanyahu’s U.S. talks—especially meetings with Trump—as a deliberate pressure play, while signaling an effort to drive a wedge between Washington and Jerusalem. In parallel, Tehran pairs renewed confrontation messaging (missiles/retaliation threats) with rigid red lines in U.S. talks and intensified domestic containment to pre-empt protest momentum.

Iran is pairing Muscat-centered diplomacy with region-wide mediation to avert a strike, while warning that any U.S. action will trigger a costly, theater-wide response and showcasing deterrence capabilities

The Iranian leadership is signaling a “maximum deterrence” posture in response to “maximum pressure.”

Unmasking the survival strategy behind Iran's latest wave of blunt threats. While missiles are simulated in the Gulf, a diplomatic "Chicken Game" is unfolding in Ankara to redraw the map of the Middle East.